Conflict

How do counterinsurgency policies affect rebel and civilian behavior? How do the transnational dimensions of conflict shape the micro-dynamics of civil wars? This work explores the consequences of investments in state capacity, the efficacy of combatants’ efforts to build civilian support, and the resilience of militant groups under repression.

Militant alliances. A central contribution is the Militant Group Alliances and Relationships (MGAR) dataset, documenting 7,409 dyad-year relationships among 2,613 militant groups from 1950 to 2016. Using these data, I study how groups sustain cooperation under the shadow of repression (IO 2022), how leadership decapitation undermines alliances (JOP 2022), and why major groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State build large transnational networks (JOGSS 2023).

Refugees and conflict. In work with Austin L. Wright (R&R at the American Economic Review), I estimate the causal effect of a large cash-assistance program for refugee returnees on conflict in Afghanistan, finding that policy-induced return reduced insurgent violence but increased social conflict.

Counterinsurgency policies. Can state forces use reparations to mitigate civilian backlash to wartime harm? Using declassified microdata on U.S. payments to wrongfully detained civilians in Iraq (2004–2008), I find that detainee-release payments are robustly associated with reduced insurgent violence (JCR 2022).