Research

My research examines the political economy of conflict, migration, and climate change, with a geographic focus on the Global South. My agenda spans four major threads, each described on its own page:

A full list of my peer-reviewed articles is on my Publications page. You can also find my work on Google Scholar, Harvard Dataverse, and SSRN. My working papers under review and works in progress are listed below.

Working Papers & Under Review

Diversionary Escalation: Theory and Evidence from Eastern Ukraine

with Natalie Ayers, Joseph J. Ruggiero, Konstantin Sonin, and Austin L. Wright

Revise & resubmit, American Political Science Review

From Allies to Neighbors: The Impact of Military Service on Public Support for Refugee Resettlement

with Rikio Inouye

Revise & resubmit, American Journal of Political Science

★ Winner, 2024 CivicPulse Young Investigator Competition

Territorial Control in Civil War

with María Ballesteros, Igor Kolesnikov, and Austin L. Wright

Revise & resubmit, World Politics

Maximum Pressure: How Refugee Repatriation Affects Conflict

with Benjamin Krick and Austin L. Wright

Offshoring Migration Policy: Migrant Responses to Restrictive Policies in Transit Countries

with Omer Solodoch

Building Walls, Building Bridges: Border Fortification and Insurgent Influence

with Luwei Ying

Combat Experience and Foreign Policy Attitudes: Evidence from World War II

with Michael C. Horowitz

Beyond Meating Climate Goals: Masculinity and Climate Policy Backlash

with Joshua A. Schwartz and Sabrina B. Arias

★ Winner, 2025 APSA Paul Sabatier Award for Best Paper on Science, Technology, and Environmental Politics

Do Refugees Fuel Conflict, or Just Make It Visible?

with Zhejun Qiu and Burcu Savun

Selected Works in Progress

  • The Politics of Constraining Humanitarian Access in Conflict
  • Counterinsurgent Propaganda: Winning Hearts and Minds on the Airwaves (with Austin L. Wright)
  • Sequencing Conquest: How the Taliban Won Afghanistan (with Austin L. Wright)
  • Leadership Turnover and Insurgent Fratricide: Evidence from Afghanistan
  • Information Manipulation and Tactical Escalation on the Battlefield: Evidence from the Donbas (with Joseph J. Ruggiero)
  • Measuring and Fighting Online Survey Fraud (with Alexander Gazmararian)
  • Folklore and Climate Attitudes (with Shikhar Singh)
  • The Politics of Climate Adaptation: Bluelining, Insurance Reform, and Voting (with Sabrina B. Arias and Alexander Gazmararian)
  • Racial Strife in the U.S. Military During World War II (with Jeongmin Park)