Research
My research examines the political economy of conflict, migration, and climate change, with a geographic focus on the Global South. A full list of my peer-reviewed articles and works in progress is on my Publications page; my working papers under review and works in progress are listed at the bottom of this page. You can also find my work on Google Scholar, Harvard Dataverse, and SSRN. The major threads of my agenda are described below.
Book Project — The Fortification Dilemma
How does border fortification shape the micro-dynamics of civil conflict? My book pioneers a border-centric approach to the transnational dimensions of civil war. It outlines several trade-offs confronting counterinsurgents who fortify borders to stem cross-border militancy, highlighting how resource constraints shape rebel tactics, how rebels and civilians adapt to the expansion of state authority in borderland communities, and how U.S. border-security assistance has inadvertently fueled border hardening.
Recent civil conflicts — from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan, Ukraine, India, and Somalia — highlight three phenomena: the U.S. increasingly funds border-control initiatives abroad to counter transnational threats; borders are hardening in response; and because rebels exploit transnational safe havens, border control has important consequences for the conduct of civil war. Drawing on new cross-national data on border-control measures and U.S. border-security aid, fine-grained microdata from Iraq and Afghanistan, restricted-access survey data, and qualitative archival evidence, the book shows that insurgent adaptations to border control generate critical trade-offs for counterinsurgents. Two related articles appear in the American Journal of Political Science, on Iraq and Afghanistan.
Conflict
How do counterinsurgency policies affect rebel and civilian behavior? How do the transnational dimensions of conflict shape the micro-dynamics of civil wars? This work explores the consequences of investments in state capacity, the efficacy of combatants’ efforts to build civilian support, and the resilience of militant groups under repression.
Militant alliances. A central contribution is the Militant Group Alliances and Relationships (MGAR) dataset, documenting 7,409 dyad-year relationships among 2,613 militant groups from 1950 to 2016. Using these data, I study how groups sustain cooperation under the shadow of repression (IO 2022), how leadership decapitation undermines alliances (JOP 2022), and why major groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State build large transnational networks (JOGSS 2023).
Refugees and conflict. In work with Austin L. Wright (R&R at the American Economic Review), I estimate the causal effect of a large cash-assistance program for refugee returnees on conflict in Afghanistan, finding that policy-induced return reduced insurgent violence but increased social conflict.
Counterinsurgency policies. Can state forces use reparations to mitigate civilian backlash to wartime harm? Using declassified microdata on U.S. payments to wrongfully detained civilians in Iraq (2004–2008), I find that detainee-release payments are robustly associated with reduced insurgent violence (JCR 2022).
Migration & Forced Displacement
How do policymakers respond to forcibly displaced people, and how do migration policies shape where people move and the consequences of their flight? This agenda advances and tests a theory of displacement policymaking in the Global South, emphasizing cross-border kinship, civil war, and local integration capacity.
Global South displacement policy. The Developing World Refugee and Asylum Policy (DWRAP) dataset covers 54 de jure provisions across 92 countries from 1952 to 2017. With Guy Grossman and Jeremy M. Weinstein, I show that intense civil wars in neighboring countries are the primary impetus for policy reform (IO 2022), and that more liberal de jure policies attract forced migrants — conditional on transnational ethnic kin who diffuse policy knowledge (APSR 2022).
Climate migration. With Sabrina B. Arias, I show that the public views climate migrants as occupying an intermediate position between economic migrants and refugees (JOP 2022), and that exposure to climate disasters such as Hurricane Ian briefly increases support for climate migrants and climate action, though effects decay within months (APSR 2024).
Public Opinion & Foreign Policy
Micro-level conflict processes are inextricably linked to public opinion. In a series of papers on foreign policy, I investigate mass attitudes on gender, climate change, and conflict, emphasizing how behavioral factors like stereotypes, identity, and emotions shape perceptions and beliefs.
Gender stereotypes. With Joshua A. Schwartz, I show that gender stereotypes shape audience costs — women leaders are punished more for backing down from threats (IO 2020) — and that women pay a “gendered peace premium” when pursuing conciliation (ISQ 2023).
Conflict and norms. With Jonathan A. Chu and Joshua A. Schwartz, I use a list experiment to detect “insincere norm-holders” who privately support chemical-weapons use (JCR 2022). With Michael C. Horowitz, I study soldiers’ attitudes toward the chemical-weapons taboo in the WWII Pacific theater and the role of military training (JOP 2024).
Working Papers & Under Review
Diversionary Escalation: Theory and Evidence from Eastern Ukraine
with Natalie Ayers, Joseph J. Ruggiero, Konstantin Sonin, and Austin L. Wright
Revise & resubmit, American Political Science Review
From Allies to Neighbors: The Impact of Military Service on Public Support for Refugee Resettlement
with Rikio Inouye
Revise & resubmit, American Journal of Political Science
★ Winner, 2024 CivicPulse Young Investigator Competition
Territorial Control in Civil War
with María Ballesteros, Igor Kolesnikov, and Austin L. Wright
Revise & resubmit, World Politics
Maximum Pressure: How Refugee Repatriation Affects Conflict
with Benjamin Krick and Austin L. Wright
Combat Experience and Foreign Policy Attitudes: Evidence from World War II
with Michael C. Horowitz
Beyond Meating Climate Goals: Masculinity and Climate Policy Backlash
with Joshua A. Schwartz and Sabrina B. Arias
★ Winner, 2025 APSA Paul Sabatier Award for Best Paper on Science, Technology, and Environmental Politics
Do Refugees Fuel Conflict, or Just Make It Visible?
with Zhejun Qiu and Burcu Savun
Selected Works in Progress
- The Politics of Constraining Humanitarian Access in Conflict
- Counterinsurgent Propaganda: Winning Hearts and Minds on the Airwaves (with Austin L. Wright)
- Sequencing Conquest: How the Taliban Won Afghanistan (with Austin L. Wright)
- Leadership Turnover and Insurgent Fratricide: Evidence from Afghanistan
- Information Manipulation and Tactical Escalation on the Battlefield: Evidence from the Donbas (with Joseph J. Ruggiero)
- Measuring and Fighting Online Survey Fraud (with Alexander Gazmararian)
- Folklore and Climate Attitudes (with Shikhar Singh)
- The Politics of Climate Adaptation: Bluelining, Insurance Reform, and Voting (with Sabrina B. Arias and Alexander Gazmararian)
- Racial Strife in the U.S. Military During World War II (with Jeongmin Park)